Moranbah, Galilee big winners
REPORT predicts mining and FIFO growth in 3 out of 4 future scenarios.
Wednesday 15 March 2017
Queensland Treasury predicts the number of FIFO or DIDO workers in Central Queensland will either fall slightly or increase by nearly 4000 people over the next six years in their latest non-resident population forecasts.
Every year, Treasury releases data on FIFO and DIDO workers because they're not included in conventional census data, but have a significant impact on local communities.
The forecasts are closely linked to the outlook for the regions resource projects, and vary considerably depending on which of those projects government assumes is going to become a reality.
To accommodate this, Treasury makes four predictions on the number of non-resident workers using last years count of 13,560 (down from 25,000 in 2012) as a starting point.
“The Series A projection, which is based on existing operations as well as projects currently under construction, expects that the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population will continue to decline after 2017, reaching 12,370 by 2023,” they predicted.
“Series B projects the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population to increase to 15,540 by 2020, before falling to 14,770 persons in 2023 which takes into account all projects approved as of December 2016 but have yet to reach final investment decision (FID).
“The Series C and D projections, which include consideration of projects yet to receive approval or without an environmental impact statement (EIS), see the Bowen Basin’s non-resident population reaching 16,960 persons and 17,450 persons respectively by 2023.”
Non-resident workers are defined as those employees in Central Queensland who work here but live somewhere else AND are at work on the day that Treasury does its count.
That means they represent just a small part of the overall resource sector workforce which includes miners living locally (by some estimates 70% of the total workforce) and non-resident workers not at work when Treasury does its count.
Within Central Queensland, most of the growth in FIFO and DIDO (based on the B, C and D series projections) is expected to occur in the Isaac local government area, with only modest increases expected in the Central Highlands.
The report has also predicted a population boom in the Barcaldine and Bowen Shires if any of the Galilee mega projects get off the ground.