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Aboutusgeneric_1 Construction Port The Gavin Daly Memorial Shield was won by Bailey Keabel and Jack Pidgeon seen here with Sonia Daly csg Under 17's Girls Award Winners Under 15's Award Winners csg Under 13 Yellow Team Under 17 Girls team Under 6 team Aboutusgenericimage_3 Mariah and Jay kaleb and Gino Under 17 boys Award winners
Aboutusgeneric_1 Construction Port The Gavin Daly Memorial Shield was won by Bailey Keabel and Jack Pidgeon seen here with Sonia Daly csg Under 17's Girls Award Winners Under 15's Award Winners csg Under 13 Yellow Team Under 17 Girls team Under 6 team Aboutusgenericimage_3 Mariah and Jay

Get out of jail free card improbable
LATEST weather forecast unlikely to improve coal prices.
Wednesday 03 December 2014  

THE Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting a drier and hotter than usual summer this year across the Bowen and Surat Basins in its latest three month outlook report.

According to the BOM, the chances of above median rain across Central Queensland is between 25 and 35 per cent.

Typically the area would receive between 200 and 300 millimetres (mm) over December, January and February, but this year the BOM is saying it is more likely to be between 100 and 200 mm due to the impacts of El Nino.

According to the BOM, forecasts for Central Queensland over the summer have been fairly accurate in the past - with up to 75 per cent of predictions being consistent with the weather that has eventuated.

However, it should be noted that while the forecasts do predict lower than average rainfall, a major disruptive rain event has not been ruled out.

Major events usually come at the tail end of a tropical cyclone, and the BOM has forecast there is a 40 per cent chance Queensland will see more than four this summer season.

In some respects a highly disruptive wet season could be counted as a blessing for the coal sector, as it would allow supply to stop without the cost of take-or-pay contracts.

Companies can declare ‘force majeure’ when they can’t deliver coal for reasons beyond their control, such as the weather, and in the current downturn that could be welcome relief from the demands of take-and-pay contracts relating to rail and port facilities.

The high cost of not delivering under take-or-pay contracts has been one of the reasons why coal supply has not reduced as quickly from the Bowen Basin as it has in previous downturns.

This, in turn, has added to an already over-supplied coal market and contributed to ongoing low coal prices.


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