2017 at a glance - CSG
Massive growth in value to Australia’s economy, but opportunity still limited locally.
Wednesday 11 January 2017
The Central Queensland CSG industry will deliver on its economic promise over the next two years with the total value of LNG exports out of Australia expected to increase by 50 percent to $37 billion.
The massive increase in exports and value reflects the fact that more than $100 billion dollars has been spent in the last decade building a new Australian LNG industry, and these projects are now in the operational stage.
However, local businesses shouldn’t expect much change in the outlook for an opportunity on the ground.
While there remains significant work in maintenance and upstream gas well expansions in the Surat Basin, the Office of the Chief Economist is not flagging a noticeable improvement in gas prices.
Without a major improvement in prices, it’s unlikely that there will be the stimulus required for major new CSG construction projects - like Arrow Energy’s Bowen Gas Project.
“The price of LNG into Japan, Australia’s largest market and the world’s largest importer, averaged US$7.05 a gigajoule in October, up from US$6.13 in July reflecting the effect of the oil price rally during the first half of 2016,” the OOCO said.
“LNG contract prices are expected to rise over 2017 and 2018, in line with the forecast for a recovery in oil prices to over US$60 a barrel.”
Not surprisingly China is expected to be the fastest growing market for LNG following a government decision double its allocation in their energy mix from five percent to ten percent.
In 2016 Chinese LNG imports increased 28 percent and are expected to increase by 34 percent next year.
Australia's total gas production is projected to increase 58% between now and 2018.